Again, that was probably the best choice they could make, given what few choices they had. While the Bills are hoping for "x," they are probably counting upon "y" and willing to cope with "z." There's a very good chance that they get "y" for the first two years of the contract, then settle into "z" for two or three years before everyone returns to the bargaining table. It's likely that "w" is also pretty small, but remember that "w" represents catastrophic failure: a 5% chance of disaster would keep a wise person from leaving the house, and there are enough examples of buyer's remorse among the highest-paid quarterbacks to suggest that "w%" is greater than 5%. Unless you spent the weekend leaping face-first into card tables, you would probably agree that "x" is a pretty small number. There's a w% chance that Allen is Wentz and the Bills are boned.There's a z% chance that Allen becomes Matt Ryan or Matthew Stafford, making Allen just effective enough to keep the Bills hovering in the playoff conversation but just expensive enough to keep them from assembling the best possible roster.In that case, this contract will represent fair market value for most or all of its length. There's a y% chance that Allen becomes Russell Wilson or prime Philip Rivers or Ben Roethlisberger.In that case, this new contract is a bargain. There's an x% chance that Allen becomes a Mahomes or Tom Brady.Huge quarterback contracts are best thought of probabilistically, according to a range of possible outcomes: If you are writing Beane-Allen slash fanfic about it (Bills Twitter is a tad overoptimistically giddy right now), you also have a point. If you are skeptical about the wisdom of the Allen extension, you have a point. Remember: some of the folks assuring you that Allen won't backslide based on their interpretations of the analytics and/or tape were swearing that he would never amount to anything better than a scrambly Joe Flacco this time last year. There's "he only had one great year" for Allen, or there's "he's growing into a can't-miss Hall of Famer before our eyes," both of which have some support. There's the "PAY THE MAN" talking point or there's "quarterbacks make too much money," which is closer to where I lean but is also irrelevant. These "new quarterback contract" columns are typically built around predictable bullet points, each chosen according to the author's priors. The Allen extension comes with success and failure rates which fall within acceptable parameters because the alternatives are either much worse or thoroughly impractical. Exposing him to free agency in two years or trading him for Aaron Rodgers would be taking a risk. Yet saying the Bills "took a risk" by extending Allen isn't really accurate. With all of that said, if Allen goes full Carson Wentz or Jared Goff, the Bills will incur what looks like a cap hit of $77 million in 2023 or $38 million in 2024. If you have to spend $258 million on a player who had one outstanding year while trying to keep a playoff nucleus together during fiscal lean times, this is how to do it. Beane was fortunate that Allen was amenable to a longer contract, allowing the Bills to maintain the short-term cap flexibility to remain contenders while pushing the big cap hits toward the coming financial windfall. He got the deal done before Lamar Jackson or Baker Mayfield signed new deals, preventing the Ravens or Browns from dictating terms and building a bigger hurdle for the Bills to leap over. Whether that business makes sense or not isn't a question Brandon Beane can afford to ask with a Super Bowl within reach and Allen's agent on Line 1.īeane handled Allen's extension as well as such an extension can be handled. Great young quarterbacks sign mammoth contracts. "Waiting and seeing" if he built upon his 2020 success would leave the Bills betting against themselves: if Allen improved, they would owe him post-Patrick Mahomes bucks, while any money they would save if Allen fell back to earth this year would be cold comfort. The Bills had little choice but to reset the quarterback market ASAP with Allen. The most insightful thing I can say about Allen's six-year, $258-million contract extension with the Buffalo Bills is that it was inevitable. It's hard to analyze the Josh Allen contract without thinking about the best-laid plans of mice, men, Eagles, and Rams.
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